Is the US losing the Pacific?
by Dunn Zhang
Since the end of the Second World War, the US has dominated the Pacific. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US remained the sole superpower in the Pacific and the world. However, this trend is quickly changing. The Chinese military has undergone a rapid and drastic expansion and modernization over the last three decades, enabled by a fast-growing economy. Beijing has been gradually reducing the gap between the Chinese Navy and the US over the years. According to a 2020 report from the Department of Defense, China now operates the largest Navy in the world and is threatening the US’s Pacific dominance.
In the late 1970s, China passed economic reforms, opening itself to the West and the capitalist world, which led to rapid economic growth. With the accumulation of national wealth, Beijing now has the capital and political power to fuel drastic expansion, reforms, and modernization of the armed forces. The size of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was reduced by half, and the resources were refocused on the modernization of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), People’s Liberation Army Airforce (PLAA), People’s Liberation Rocket Force (PLRF), and People’s Liberation Army Marine Corps. The reform was a result of Beijing’s shift in geopolitical objectives. Beijing believes for China to survive, it is vital to secure dominance in the Pacific. The military generals break down the grand strategy of Pacific dominance into two phases. First, China is to undermine and dismantle the US presence in Asia gradually. Second, China is to build up and train enough forces to challenge the US Pacific Fleet and push into the Pacific Ocean at large. The gradual build-up and advancement of anti-ship weaponry by China have put more US assets within attack range. Weapons such as the DF-21 anti-ship Ballistic Missile could be launched from the Chinese mainland and hit targets between 500 km to 2000 km. Anti-ship weaponry deployed along the Chinese coast could deter the US from entering its range, which will pave the way for the Chinese Navy’s advance into the Pacific. China would utilize its stockpile of anti-ship weapons, and conventional armed ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to perform saturation attacks on US assets. It is hoped that the US forces in the region will be temporarily suppressed, leaving them vulnerable to PLAN surface forces.
The capabilities of PLAN surface forces have been rapidly improving over the past three decades. China went from having virtually no ability to project power beyond the Chinese coast to operating the largest Navy in the world, complete with multiple aircraft carriers. So far, the two operational aircraft carriers, Type 001 Liaoning and Type 002 Shandong, serve as training platforms for navy pilots and crewmen. According to a Chinese source, Type 003 carrier, which is larger than its predecessors and complete with electromagnetic catapult systems, will launch in 2021. The revelations of its systems could indicate the carrier’s purpose, to combat the US carriers in Asia and the Pacific. Besides its carrier force, China is also building new, highly capable surface units such as destroyers, frigates, and corvettes. These ships are not only designed to protect the coast but also to operate in the deep sea, far away from the Chinese mainland. For example, the Type 055 Guided Missile Destroyer is armed with dozens of CJ-10 land-attack cruise missiles, similar to the American Tomahawk’s capabilities. In the future, conventional cruise missiles will be replaced with hypersonic missiles, capable of both anti-ship and land-attack. So, it would not be stretched to say that the US west coast, perhaps the entire continental US, could be threatened by Chinese missiles in the near future.
The US has realized this. During the Trump Administration, the US has upped military spending to 738 billion dollars to counter and contain China. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has gradually reduced its military budget to adapt to a peacetime economy. The Navy had around 330 vessels operational in 1999, and that number dropped to just 270 in 2015. However, the trend has reversed. Now, the US vessel count has surpassed 300.
This build-up of new vessels also meant a renewed interest in hypersonics and anti-ship ballistic weapons, which the US lacks behind China and Russia. However, containing China is not easy; in 2020, China operated roughly 500 vessels, while the US operated around 300. Adding to the problem, the US borders two oceans, and its Navy is deployed across the globe. Any future conflict with China will surely involve Russia and Europe, making relocation of troops and naval units extremely difficult. On the other hand, China could dedicate its entire Navy to fight against a sub-detachment of the larger US navy.
There is no doubt the new arms race will reshape the world. The current administration in office has not explicitly announced its military strategy around China. If the last administration trend continues, the world is on a path to a second cold war, where nuclear weapons take a back seat, and naval, cyber, and space warfare will determine the victor.